Archive for the 'Quarterly Updates' Category
We have observed a very slight uptick in inventory of homes for sale this quarter. That hasn’t had an effect on the sales prices received and the over-asking price bidding wars. Buyers still greatly outnumber the homes for sale. As long as that trend continues prices are going to rise.
In the charts below, you’ll find 15 years of data for market activity and median sales price for the month of Third Quarter for Palo Alto, Los Altos, Los Altos Hills, Menlo Park and Mountain View. You can’t find this level of historical data all in one place anywhere else, so if you have any questions or wish to get more info about your community, don’t hesitate to contact us.
The historical rise in housing prices has been caused by two basic factors: strong employment and a shortage of homes for sale. As long as those two factors continue, the market will continue to improve. At some point affordability will come into play. So far, that hasn’t been the case.
In the charts below, you’ll find 15 years of data for market activity and median sales price for the Second Quarter for Palo Alto, Los Altos, Los Altos Hills, Menlo Park and Mountain View. You can’t find this level of historical data all in one place anywhere else, so if you have any questions or wish to get more info about your community, don’t hesitate to contact us.
SF Peninsula & Silicon Valley: Q1 2015 Compared to Last Year and Five Years Ago
WILL WATER RATIONING MARK THE END TO THE RUN UP IN PRICES?
Lack of homes for sale was again the greatest factor in the first quarter on 2015. How long will the current bull housing market continue? That is the question that everyone is asking.
In the stats below, Los Altos Hills had the greatest increase in the number of closed sales over the previous year; up 35%. After an incredible run-up in ’99 and ’00 and a steep drop in ’01 and ’02, the Hills entered a long period of being unpopular, Now, compared with Atherton’s incredible appreciation, the area started looking like the bargain that it had become.
Sunnyvale had the highest number of new listings; a 34% increase over the 2014. Mountain View had the least days on the market; 13 days to sell!
Atherton had the highest median sales price of $7 million. That was a 154% increase from the same period last year!
SF Peninsula & Silicon Valley: How Q1-‘14 compared to: Q1-‘13, Q1-‘09, and 15yr Averages
BUYERS NERVOUSNESS INCREASES WHILE HOMES APPRECIATE RAPIDLY
Lack of homes for sale remained the greatest factor in the local housing maket in the first quarter of 2014. Warnings of an imminent “market top” and a “housing bubble” echoed throughout the various news services and media. Yet, it did little to dampen the numbers of offers on homes. Nor did it stop buyers from offering to pay greatly over the asking prices for the few homes available each week. How long will this housing market boom continue? That is now the question everyone is asking!
On average, among the cities in the charts below, during the first quarter of ’14 new listings were down by 34% from their 15 year averages. As a result, sales were down by 17%. It took half as long for a home to sell in Q1 ’14, compared to the 15 year average. Until buyers begin to balk at the asking prices – which has yet to happen with any frequency – or when a financial shock of some magnitude causes a drop in consumer confidence, we anticipate that the current “seller’s market” will continue unimpeded.
Median sales prices were up, on average, by 45% since 2009! Buyers paid 5% over asking price, on average, in 2014 compared to 5% under the asking price in 2009. The price of homes per square foot was up by 42%, on average, compared to 2009. Location, location, location: Homes that are the most volatile (that rise and fall the most in value in each cycle) are those with “unremediable issues” – negative location issues or poorly designed floor plans. There is very little discount for homes with negative attributes in today’s hot market, but they drop greatly in value in a slower market. Folks in homes with location “issues” are wise to sell now, before the market turns. Conversely, buyers must now select very carefully!
WANT MORE SPECIFIC INFORMATION?
The towns included above have diverse neighborhoods and prices. When we look at averages we get clues to the overall market, but not the details. If you would like an in-depth analysis of market trends in your particular town or neighborhood, simply call Jeff at 650/823-8057 or Steve at 650/450-0160, or email us: [email protected], or visit our website: JeffAndSteve.com. We’ll be happy to help!
In the towns listed below the housing market was hot again in the 3rd quarter of 2013. Overall, sales were up, the percentage of list price received by sellers was up, price per square foot was up, and median sales prices were up. The number of new listings and the average number of days it took to sell were both down – two more indicators of a hot market. An extremely low supply of homes for sale continued to fuel bidding wars for rationally-priced, well-located homes during the 3rd quarter.
HAVE WE REACHED A TIPPING POINT?
As we write this, Congress has yet to settle its differences regarding the budget and debt ceiling – they’ve only put it off until January and February of 2014. Meanwhile, consumer confidence is rapidly eroding! Whether or not these difficulties will bring about the end to the current real estate bull market remains to be seen. If inventory starts to steadily grow, we’ll have the answer.
THE BOTTOM LINE: Buyers, select very carefully! Sellers, don’t miss this low-inventory market!
THIRD QUARTER MARKET ACTIVITY
This Year, Last Year & 5 Years Ago